Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
