🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray regarding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.